Aging & the
U.S. Economy
America is aging at a pace without historical precedent. The economic, fiscal, and real estate implications of this shift are already visible in federal budgets, labor markets, and capital flows — and they intensify every year through at least 2040. For senior housing investors, this is not background context. It is the thesis.
The Scale of
America's Aging
The United States is undergoing a demographic transformation that will define its economic trajectory for the next quarter century. The numbers are not projections — most of the people who will be 80 in 2035 are already alive today. This shift is countable, predictable, and already underway.
The oldest Baby Boomers — those born in 1946 — turn 80 in 2026. They are entering the age cohort most likely to require assisted living and memory care. This marks the beginning of a decade-long wave of peak senior housing demand that has no historical precedent.
In 2025, 18.7% of Americans are over 65 — up from 12.4% in 2000. By 2030, when the last Baby Boomers reach 65, that share crosses 20% for the first time in U.S. history. By 2050, it reaches an estimated 23%.
The CBO projects the population aged 65–84 will grow by 7 million between 2025 and 2030. An additional 5 million Americans will be 85 or older by the 2030s — the cohort with the most intensive care needs and the highest utilization of assisted living services.
A 65-year-old today can expect to live approximately 20 more years. The projected average U.S. life expectancy at birth rises from 78.9 years in 2025 to 82.2 years in 2055. Longer lives translate directly into more years of senior housing demand per resident.
The elderly dependency ratio — seniors 65+ per 100 working-age adults — rose 43.2% between 2010 and 2024, from 21 to 30. This increase occurred largely before the peak of the Baby Boomer retirement wave. The sharpest increase comes in the 2030s, driven by 85+ growth.
By 2030, every Baby Boomer — all 76 million of them — will be at least 65 years old. The youngest Boomers turn 66 in 2030. Without significant immigration, the CBO projects deaths will begin to outnumber births in the U.S. around the same year, compounding demographic pressure.
The Economic
Consequences
An aging population reshapes the economy in structural ways — slowing the workforce, accelerating federal spending, and shifting the sources of GDP growth. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City noted in March 2026 that the aging of the population is already a measurable headwind to the U.S. workforce and a drag on the economy's long-term speed limit.
National health expenditures grew 7.2% to $5.3 trillion in 2024 — equal to 18.0% of GDP and $15,474 per person. Over 2024–2033, NHE growth of 5.8% annually is projected to outpace GDP growth of 4.3%, pushing healthcare's share of the economy to 20.3% by 2033.
Medicare spending grew 7.8% to $1.118 trillion in 2024, representing 21% of total national health expenditures. Medicare spending growth averages 9.7% annually through 2030 — when every Baby Boomer will be at least 65. This reflects both enrollment growth and rising per-beneficiary costs.
Individuals aged 65 and older spend approximately 2.5 times more on healthcare per person than working-age adults — and 5 times more than children. Per capita costs for those 85 and older are nearly double those of 65–84-year-olds. As the population ages, average per-person costs rise structurally.
National health expenditures are projected to reach 20.3% of GDP by 2033, up from 18.0% in 2024. Federal spending on healthcare is expected to grow from $2.4 trillion in 2024 (48% of NHE) to $4.3 trillion in 2033 (53% of NHE) — driven almost entirely by Medicare enrollment growth.
In 2025, approximately 34 seniors are supported by every 100 workers. In roughly 30 years, that ratio grows to 50 seniors per 100 working-age people. This shrinking worker-to-beneficiary ratio puts direct pressure on the solvency of Social Security and Medicare — both of which depend on current workers to fund current retirees.
The U.S. economy expanded at approximately 2% annualized in Q1 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The aging of the workforce is identified as a key structural headwind — zero working-age population growth means GDP growth depends increasingly on productivity rather than labor force expansion.
Workforce, Caregiving
& the Hidden Economic Cost
America's aging population does not just reshape what government spends — it reshapes who shows up to work, and at what capacity. The KPMG Care Economy report (March 2026) documents a care crisis that is simultaneously a labor market crisis: tens of millions of working-age Americans are providing unpaid eldercare while holding paid jobs, constraining their productivity, career trajectories, and workforce participation.
38.2 million Americans were unpaid eldercare providers in 2023–2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of those, 24 million also held paid employment — meaning they were managing dual demands simultaneously. 52% were women; 48% were men. Nearly half were Gen X, who will face the greatest eldercare pressure as their Boomer parents age through their 80s.
In 2024, healthcare and social assistance lost 82.8 million work hours due to employee childcare problems alone — and eldercare disruption compounds this further. The care economy is not separate from the broader economy. It is embedded in it.
Eldercare demand is unevenly distributed across industries. Healthcare and social assistance employs the largest number of unpaid caregivers (4.4 million), followed by professional and business services (3.5 million) and educational services (2.8 million). These are knowledge-economy jobs — meaning eldercare-related labor market disruption is concentrated precisely where productivity matters most.
Eldercare by Industry — Unpaid Caregivers (2024)
The Aging Timeline — Key Milestones
What This Means for
Senior Housing
The demographic and economic forces described above do not merely create a favorable backdrop for senior housing investment. They create a structural supply-demand imbalance that is already visible in occupancy rates, rent growth, and transaction volume — and that intensifies through at least the end of this decade.
Senior housing is the only major commercial real estate category where demand is driven by biology, not behavior. It is needs-based, recession-resistant, and insulated from the economic cycle in ways that office, retail, hospitality, and multifamily are not. A senior does not choose to need assisted living the way a consumer chooses to visit a mall.
The result is one of the most compelling demand stories in commercial real estate: an aging wave of unprecedented scale, entering the highest-utilization age cohorts, in a market with construction starts at 17-year lows and occupancy at pre-pandemic highs. Those who understand the demographic data are moving now, ahead of the acceleration.
The U.S. is aging faster than it is building senior housing — and that gap widens every year through at least 2035.
The Demographics Are
Already Written
The people who will be 80 in 2030 are already alive. The supply needed to house them is not being built. Haven works with buyers, investors, and operators who understand what this means — and are positioning accordingly. Senior housing only. All 50 states.
