U.S. Senior Housing
& Assisted Living
Data 2026
A comprehensive, source-cited data reference for the U.S. senior housing and assisted living sector — drawing from NIC MAP, JLL, CBRE, PwC/ULI, U.S. Census Bureau, and McKnight's Senior Living. Updated with Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 data as available.
18 Consecutive Quarters
of Occupancy Growth
National senior housing occupancy reached 89.1% in Q4 2025 — the eighteenth consecutive quarterly increase and the highest rate since before the pandemic. NIC MAP projects the industry will exceed 90% by end of 2026, potentially the highest occupancy recorded in 20 years of tracking. Active adult reached approximately 92%, and independent living crossed 90% for the first time since 2019.
Occupancy by Community Type — Q4 2025
Source: NIC MAP Q4 2025 Senior Housing Market Fundamentals, released January 2026. 31 primary markets tracked. Active adult and memory care approximate.
18 Consecutive Quarters of Growth
Gold blocks = consecutive quarters of occupancy growth. Source: NIC MAP 2025–2026.
Total occupied senior housing units grew to nearly 635,000 in Q4 2025 — an increase of nearly 20,000 units (approximately 3%) compared to Q4 2024, representing an all-time high in senior housing demand. Net absorption has outpaced new supply openings for eighteen straight quarters.
Seven of the 31 primary markets tracked by NIC MAP exceeded 90% occupancy in Q4 2025, up from five in Q3. NIC MAP CEO Arick Morton noted: "A 200 basis point gain in one calendar year shows no signs of slowing. Absent new supply, many markets will begin registering all-time highs in the near term."
- Q4 2025 overall: 89.1% — up 0.4 points from Q3 2025. 18th consecutive quarterly increase (NIC MAP)
- Independent living: Crossed 90% for first time since 2019 in Q3 2025; reached 90.5% in Q4 (NIC MAP)
- Assisted living Q4 2025: 87.7% — up 0.5 points from Q3; highest since pre-pandemic (NIC MAP)
- Active adult: ~92% in Q4 2025 — a nascent but rapidly growing segment driven by healthy 55–75 cohort (NIC MAP)
- 7 of 31 markets: Exceeded 90% occupancy individually in Q4 2025, up from 5 in Q3 (NIC MAP)
- 2026 projection: NIC MAP projects industry-wide 90%+ average by end of 2026 — potentially the highest in 20 years of tracking (NIC / PwC)
- 2028 projection: Operating near 93% stabilized occupancy if supply does not materially increase (NIC MAP December 2025)
"Baby Boomers are reshaping the industry. We anticipate strong consumer demand will drive average senior housing occupancy rates above 90% by the end of 2026."
Sources: NIC MAP Q4 2025 report (Jan 2026); McKnight's Senior Living Jan 2026; Senior Housing News Jan 2026; PwC/ULI Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2026.
Record-Low Construction.
Record-High Demand.
Inventory growth in Q3 2025 fell to just 0.7% year-over-year — the lowest level since NIC MAP began tracking supply data in 2006. Fewer than 1,400 new units opened in Q3 2025, and 1,900 in Q4. Units under construction fell to approximately 17,000 — the lowest since 2012–2013. The average construction cycle has stretched to 29 months, meaning projects starting in 2026 will not open until 2028.
The senior housing industry currently delivers approximately 26,000 new units annually across all care types. This represents the pace at which capital, construction costs, labor, and financing constraints currently allow the sector to grow.
NIC MAP CEO Arick Morton has stated publicly the industry must build at nearly double its all-time record pace — approximately 55,000 units per year — for the next 20 years just to maintain 90% occupancy. The current delivery rate is roughly half of what is required.
- 0.7% inventory growth Q3 2025: Lowest since NIC began tracking in 2006 — a record low (NIC MAP Oct 2025)
- ~17,000 units under construction Q3 2025: Lowest since 2012–2013. Down from 21,750 units in Q1 2025 (CBRE / NIC MAP)
- 1,900 new units Q4 2025: Fewer than 1,400 opened in Q3 2025; 1,900 in Q4 — both historically low openings (NIC MAP Jan 2026)
- 50%+ of 140 NIC MAP metros: Have zero active senior housing development projects currently underway (PwC/ULI 2026)
- 29-month average construction cycle: Projects starting in early 2026 will not open before 2028 (NIC MAP / Multi-Housing News Jan 2026)
- 200,000+ units needed by 2028: CBRE projects the sector must add over 200,000 units by 2028 to meet rising demand. Only 17,000–20,000 currently under construction (CBRE H2 2025)
- 806,000 units needed by 2030: To maintain current market penetration rates as the 80+ population surges (NIC MAP / PatientPay March 2026)
Sources: NIC MAP Q3/Q4 2025; CBRE Senior Housing Investor Survey H2 2025; PwC/ULI Emerging Trends 2026; Multi-Housing News Jan 2026; PatientPay March 2026.
Construction activity has been suppressed by a convergence of structural headwinds: elevated construction costs (up approximately 28% since 2020), tighter lending standards, higher interest rates, and a labor shortage across both skilled trades and senior care workers. The result is that new projects pencil only in the most affluent, supply-constrained micro-markets — leaving secondary, tertiary, and mid-market geographies severely underserved.
CBRE's H2 2025 Senior Housing Investor Survey found that rental rates that make new development feasible remain approximately 15–20% above current market rents in most core markets. This gap is expected to contract in 2026 as operating rents continue rising — but it means ground-up construction remains economically challenging, keeping the supply pipeline thin for the foreseeable future.
Communities open and operating today face no meaningful near-term competition from new supply in most markets. This structurally advantages existing stabilized assets and well-executed value-add acquisitions.
Sources: CBRE H2 2025; NIC MAP Outlook Report 2025; Walker & Dunlop 2026 Forecast.
The 80+ Population Wave
Has Arrived
The oldest Baby Boomers turned 80 in 2026 — entering the age cohort most likely to need senior housing. This is the inflection point the industry has anticipated for decades. The 80+ population will grow 36% over the next ten years and 48% between 2025 and 2030. Demand is no longer a future projection. It is filling units right now.
Baby Boomers are the wealthiest generation of Americans by median net worth. The median 75+ household today can afford approximately 50 years of senior housing private-pay rent — up from 15–20 years in the early 2010s, based on U.S. Census wealth distribution data. Their median net worth has grown to approximately $335,600 for those aged 75 and older, driven by home equity appreciation, dual-income retirement, and wealth transfers.
This increased affordability is reshaping demand — and simultaneously widening the gap between upper-income Boomers who can access market-rate communities, and the 16 million middle-market seniors projected by 2033 who earn too much for Medicaid but too little for private-pay senior housing at current rates. This structural mismatch is the defining challenge of the next decade.
- 75–84 age cohort: Accounts for 44.15% of senior housing demand in 2025. Fastest-growing segment over the next 5 years (Mordor Intelligence 2026)
- 85+ cohort: Projected 6.63% CAGR through 2031 — the highest acuity, highest-need residential care segment (Mordor Intelligence)
- Adults living alone 75+: Projected to more than double by 2040 — fewer family caregiver safety nets, stronger need for professional senior housing (PwC/ULI 2026)
- Texas: Fastest-growing senior housing state market — 6.88% CAGR to 2031, versus California's 12.05% revenue share lead (Mordor Intelligence Jan 2026)
Sources: JLL 2026 Investor Survey; NIC MAP CEO June 2025; Mordor Intelligence Jan 2026; PwC/ULI Emerging Trends 2026; U.S. Census Bureau 2024 Population Projections.
The Middle Market — The Unresolved Crisis
- 16 million middle-market 75+ by 2033: Nearly double from 2018. These seniors earn too much for Medicaid but too little for current market-rate senior housing (NORC / NIC 2022)
- 43% of all Americans 75+ will fall within the middle-income cohort by 2033 — making this the plurality of the market, not a niche (NORC 2022)
- 75% cannot afford private assisted living in 2033 without selling their home. Even with home equity, 39% still cannot afford it (NORC 2022 "Forgotten Middle" update)
- $415 billion investment opportunity: Estimated 10-year investment need in affordable middle-market senior housing (industry consensus)
- $5,479/month average AL rent: Equivalent to $65,748/year — the middle-market income ceiling is approximately $25,000–$74,000 annually (JLL 2026 / NIC)
Active Adult — The Fastest-Growing Segment
- <1% national penetration: Active adult is the youngest senior housing segment — massive runway for growth as healthy 55–75 adults seek peer-oriented communities
- Dallas leads with ~7% of national active adult inventory — the most concentrated market in the U.S. (Multi-Housing News Jan 2026)
- ~92% occupancy: Active adult consistently outperforms all other senior housing segment types on occupancy (NIC MAP Q4 2025)
Sources: NORC at University of Chicago 2022; NIC; Multi-Housing News Jan 2026; JLL March 2026; NIC MAP Q4 2025.
$24 Billion in Transactions.
A Decade High.
Rolling four-quarter senior housing transaction volume reached $24 billion — the highest level since 2015 and a decade high for the sector. Price per unit rose 29% year-over-year to $182,800. Alternatives' share of total commercial real estate transaction volume reached 16.2% — also a decade high. The capital market opened decisively in 2025 and investor appetite for 2026 is at its strongest point since pre-pandemic.
Highest transaction volume since 2015. Decade high for the senior housing sector as a whole. JLL Capital Markets closed multiple sales and financings across single assets and large portfolios throughout 2025.
Rolling 4-quarter price per unit — up 29% year-over-year and 43% from the prior year in Q3 2025. The improvement in pricing aligns with expanding NOI margins among REIT operating portfolios.
Properties traded in the rolling 4-quarter period through Q3 2025 — a 7% increase year-over-year. Marketing time has remained stable at approximately 6 months per asset (67% of respondents).
Private capital accounted for 50% of transactions by volume in 2025. REITs and public buyers represented 32% of volume — up from 24% in 2024, reflecting growing institutional conviction in the sector.
Senior housing as an alternative CRE asset reached a decade-high 16.2% share of total commercial real estate transaction volume in 2025 — confirming the sector's emergence as a mainstream institutional asset class.
Stabilized Class A assets in supply-constrained markets consistently attracted 10–15 qualified bids per offering — evidence of compressed inventory and strong institutional competition for quality assets (JLL 2025).
Sources: JLL 2026 Seniors Housing & Care Investor Survey (March 2026); NIC MAP Q3 2025; JLL Capital Markets 2025 Year-End Review; Multi-Housing News Jan 2026.
Rents Up 28.8% Since
COVID. Margins at 7-Year High.
Average monthly senior housing rents reached $5,479 in 2025 — equivalent to $65,748 per year — up 28.8% from pre-COVID levels. NOI margins surpassed 25% in mid-2025, the highest since 2018. CBRE forecasts annual rent growth exceeding 5% for the next three years. No respondents in either the JLL or CBRE 2025 surveys projected rent declines for any senior housing segment.
Average monthly rent across all senior housing types in 2025. Equivalent to $65,748 annually. Up 28.8% from pre-COVID levels. Assisted living average rent is the primary driver of the portfolio figure.
Source: JLL 2026 Senior Housing Investor Survey
69% of investors surveyed expect rent growth of 3–7% across senior housing segments in the next 12 months. CBRE projects 5%+ annually for at least three consecutive years. No respondents expect rent declines in any segment.
Source: CBRE H2 2025 Senior Housing Investor Survey; JLL 2026
Average NOI margins among public REIT operating portfolios surpassed 25% in mid-2025 — the highest since 2018. Stable rent growth paired with moderating expense inflation is enabling sustained margin expansion across the sector.
Source: NIC MAP Q3 2025; JLL 2026 Seniors Housing Investor Survey
Rental rates required to make new senior housing development financially feasible remain 15–20% above current market rents in most core markets. This gap is narrowing as operating rents rise, but continues to constrain new supply.
Source: CBRE H2 2025 Senior Housing Investor Survey
Senior housing rents have grown 28.8% cumulatively since pre-pandemic baselines — outpacing most other commercial real estate sectors. This growth reflects both genuine demand strength and the operating cost normalization that followed the COVID staffing crisis.
Source: JLL 2026 Seniors Housing & Care Investor Survey, March 2026
Rolling four-quarter net absorption continued at a healthy 3.5–4.5% annualized rate through 2025 — outpacing new supply openings every quarter. The result is 18 consecutive quarters of occupancy gains and no relief in sight without a meaningful construction acceleration.
Source: NIC MAP Q3 2025 Senior Housing Market Fundamentals
Compression Across
All Segments. More Ahead.
Average senior housing cap rates fell to 6.2% in Q4 2025 (JLL). CBRE's H2 2025 survey recorded a 17 basis point decline in the prior six months alone. 85% of JLL respondents and 84% of CBRE respondents expect further cap rate compression over the next 12 months. Cap rate spreads to the 10-year Treasury have compressed to 210 basis points — well below the long-term sector average of 416 basis points.
| Segment | Market Type | Avg Cap Rate | Trend (6 Mo.) | 12-Mo. Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Adult | Core, Class A | 5.5% | ↓ 25 bps | Compression expected (84%) |
| Independent Living | Core, Class A | 6.1% | ↓ 20 bps | Compression expected (84%) |
| Assisted Living | Core, Class A | 7.0% | ↓ 19 bps | Compression expected (84%) |
| Active Adult | Non-Core | 6.4% | ↓ 13 bps | Compression expected |
| Assisted Living | Non-Core | 7.4% | ↓ 13 bps | Compression expected |
| Memory Care | Free-Standing | 9.6% | ↓ 16 bps (H2) | Stabilizing / modest compression |
| Skilled Nursing | All Markets | ~10–12% | ↓ 14 bps | Modest compression |
Source: CBRE Senior Housing & Care Investor Survey H2 2025 (December 2025); JLL 2026 Seniors Housing & Care Investor Survey (March 2026). Cap rates are survey averages and vary by specific market, asset quality, lease structure, and operating performance. Not investment advice.
The 210 basis point spread between average senior housing cap rates and the 10-year U.S. Treasury — versus the sector's long-term historical average of 416 basis points — underscores the meaningful yield compression that has already occurred and the extent to which capital has re-rated senior housing toward mainstream institutional asset class status.
PGIM Real Estate's pricing model suggests that today's transaction cap rates remain approximately 80 basis points above equilibrium valuation levels implied by historical risk premiums and expected income growth — indicating continued room for compression as NOI grows and liquidity improves.
Source: SLF Investments / PGIM Real Estate analysis, Q3 2025.
- 85% of JLL respondents: Expect cap rates to decrease further over the next 12 months — up from 57% in the prior year's JLL survey (JLL March 2026)
- 84% of CBRE respondents: Expect cap rates to decrease over the next 12 months (CBRE H2 2025)
- 67% of CBRE respondents: Reported cap rates decreased in the prior 6-month period (CBRE H2 2025)
- Average decline 17 bps: Senior housing cap rates fell 17 bps on average over the six months to the H2 2025 CBRE survey
- 210 bps spread to 10-yr Treasury: vs. long-term average of 416 bps — significant compression but still positive yield premium (JLL 2026)
- 80 bps above equilibrium: PGIM Real Estate pricing model indicates room for further compression (SLF Investments Q3 2025)
86% of Investors
Increasing Exposure in 2026
JLL's 2026 Seniors Housing & Care Investor Survey found that 86% of respondents are seeking to increase their senior housing exposure in 2026 — up 10 percentage points from the prior year. Only 4% are looking to decrease exposure. Debt availability improved markedly in 2025, with construction, bridge, and permanent financing all available at competitive spreads.
Capital market conditions improved substantially in 2025. JLL Capital Markets Senior Managing Director Aaron Rosenzweig noted debt is "as liquid as it's been since the pandemic," with spreads on permanent loans placed at or below approximately 200 basis points. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, life companies, and banks are all active across construction, bridge, and permanent loan structures.
Harrison Street Asset Management's global CIO Mike Gordon described 2025 as a year where "debt availability improved markedly and investor appetite returned in a big way." Walker & Dunlop, CBRE, and NIC Analytics collectively project multi-year outperformance for the sector, driven by aging demographics, minimal new supply, and operational normalization.
Sources: JLL 2026 Investor Survey; Multi-Housing News Jan 2026; Walker & Dunlop 2026 Forecast; CBRE H2 2025 Investor Survey.
- Harrison Street, JLL, Walker & Dunlop: All project mid-single-digit revenue growth for well-run senior housing platforms in 2026
- Permanent financing: Remains prevalent for stabilized assets — Fannie, Freddie, life companies, and banks all competitive in 2025–2026
- Bridge financing: Available for value-add acquisitions at 60–65% LTC with structures that burn down as occupancy and NOI improve
- REIT re-entry: Public REIT share of transaction volume rose from 24% to 32% in 2025 — Welltower and Ventas among the most active (JLL / CBRE)
- PwC/ULI 2026: Seniors housing among the top-ranked real estate sectors for investment and development prospects in their annual survey of institutional capital
- Selective development: New development proceeding only in "premier communities on irreplaceable sites in affluent micro-markets with high barriers to entry" (Harrison Street, Jan 2026)
Sources: JLL 2026; Multi-Housing News Jan 2026; CBRE H2 2025; PwC/ULI Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2026.
Senior Housing by
Care Type — 2026
Senior housing comprises multiple distinct care and product types, each with different occupancy profiles, cap rate ranges, operating cost structures, resident demographics, and investment characteristics. Understanding the distinctions between segments is essential to evaluating any acquisition, development, or investment thesis.
Serves healthy, active adults 55+. No on-site healthcare services — lifestyle-focused communities. The fastest-growing and most nascent segment. Dallas holds ~7% of national inventory. Demand driven by Boomers seeking peer community without care services. Price point typically below traditional IL.
Source: NIC MAP Q4 2025; CBRE H2 2025; Multi-Housing News Jan 2026
Serves seniors who want community and amenities without ongoing care needs. Generally serves the 70–80 cohort. Crossed 90% occupancy for the first time since 2019 in Q3 2025. Top-quality IL communities delivered 2018–2021 are particularly strong — any new construction will be lower-amenity given cost pressures (CBRE H2 2025).
Source: NIC MAP Q4 2025; CBRE H2 2025; Senior Housing News Jan 2026
Serves seniors requiring help with ADLs — the largest care category by unit count and transaction volume. Cited by 40% of JLL survey respondents as the most targeted investment opportunity in 2026. Primarily private-pay, insulating operators from Medicaid reimbursement volatility. Highest absolute unit demand in near term.
Source: NIC MAP Q4 2025; JLL 2026; CBRE H2 2025
Serves residents with dementia and Alzheimer's. Higher cap rates reflect greater operating risk — specialized staff, regulatory compliance, and higher turnover. Private-pay rates command a meaningful premium over general AL. Growing 85+ cohort (projected to double by 2040) drives structural demand. Free-standing MC saw 48 consecutive months of cap rate increases before declining 16 bps in H2 2025.
Source: CBRE H2 2025; McKnight's Senior Living Dec 2025
Provides 24-hour nursing and rehabilitative care. Higher cap rates reflect Medicaid reimbursement dependency, regulatory risk, and operational complexity. Cap rates have been compressing as operators demonstrate improved performance and lenders re-engage. Subject to ongoing federal oversight and Medicaid funding policy uncertainty.
Source: CBRE H2 2025; CRE Daily Jan 2026
Multi-level campuses combining IL, AL, MC, and sometimes SNF under a life plan contract. Residents pay an entrance fee and monthly fee for guaranteed access to higher care levels as needed. Complex to underwrite and operate but provide a full continuum of care under one roof. Institutional investors increasingly active in large CCRC campus transactions in 2025–2026.
Source: JLL 2026; CBRE H2 2025 Senior Housing Investor Survey
Haven Advises on Senior Housing
Transactions Backed by Real Data
Every advisory engagement at Haven is grounded in current market data — occupancy trends, comparable transactions, cap rate ranges, and supply-demand dynamics specific to your asset and geography. Talk to a Haven advisor or read our full market report.
Data sourced from NIC MAP, JLL, CBRE, PwC/ULI, U.S. Census Bureau, McKnight's Senior Living, Multi-Housing News, Senior Housing News, and PatientPay. All data current through Q4 2025 / Q1 2026. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
